CURRENT WATCHES & WARNINGS

An Incident Leading To an Implication of Unfulfilled Promises

By

Chuck Doswell

Chuck Doswell is a Senior Research Scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) at the University of Oklahoma Sarkeys Energy Center.

Posted: 11 July 2009 Updated: 02 August 2009

 with added input from a reader

As usual, this is my opinion, based on nothing substantial apart from years of experience.  If you have any opinions or criticisms about this content, contact me at cdoswell#earthlink.net [either use the email hyperlink or cut and paste after substituting @ for #].  If you're not willing to have your comments appear on this page, explain to me why I shouldn't ignore them.

The basic premise of this essay is the idea that we don't currently live in the best of all possible worlds regarding the use of severe weather warning information in American society.  This was evident on 12 June 2009, as a tornado developed in east Norman.  The tornado began at about 10:23 CDT and ended at about 10:38 pm CDT, and the sirens in Norman were sounded at 10:40 pm CDT.  The National Weather Service (NWS) office in OUN issued a TOR warning at 10:24 pm CDT.   At the time of the tornado, the city of Norman was in severe thunderstorm watch #395 - which included a low (20%) probability of two or more tornadoes of any intensity (and a 10% probability of one or more F2-F5 tornadoes).  [continued]

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